Why is Trump weighing F-35 sales to Turkey and what could happen next?

What is happening

US President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara that the United States will “certainly consider” selling F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey and will lift sanctions imposed on Ankara over its purchase of a Russian air defense system. The comments came during a half-hour meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump’s first visit to Turkey in office.

Sitting beside Erdogan, Trump described Turkey as “in many ways much more loyal than other countries,” praised Erdogan as a “friend,” and said the sale “made sense,” but stopped short of announcing a deal. “It’s a decision we’re going to make,” Trump told reporters. “It’s certainly something we will consider.”

Erdogan was more definitive, saying in Turkish that Trump had promised to deliver five F-35s and that “Mr. Trump always stands by his word.” Asked specifically about sanctions, Trump replied: “We’re going to be taking the sanctions off.”

The aircraft and the legal backdrop

The F-35, built by Lockheed Martin, is a fifth-generation fighter with stealth, intelligence and long-range strike capabilities and a combat range of roughly 1,200 miles. Israel is currently the only Middle Eastern operator, flying 48 jets with another 52 on order. Turkey, a former production partner, was removed from the program in 2020 after it accepted delivery of Russia’s S-400 air defense system in 2019.

Congress responded by passing the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, which prohibits transferring F-35s to Turkey unless the administration certifies that Ankara “no longer possesses” the S-400 or anything associated with it. Separately, the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) triggered sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defence Industries, including export-license bans and banking restrictions. CAATSA sanctions were applied under Trump’s first term but were, as The Hill reported, compelled by the statute Congress wrote.

Vice President JD Vance told reporters last month that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and “the entire team” were “reviewing this right now, because there are certain things that we have to certify have happened … in order to comply with American law.” A senior administration official, speaking anonymously to The Washington Post, said Trump was expected to confirm he would greenlight purchases, though the official stressed the decision was “not yet final.”

The pushback Trump faces

The most concrete opposition is in Congress. A bipartisan group of 10 House members wrote to Trump on July 2 expressing “deep concern” about any F-35 sale, citing Erdogan’s “troubling defense partnerships with our adversaries.” Signers included Republicans Mike Lawler, Nicole Malliotakis, Gus Bilirakis, Jeff Hurd, Max Miller and Young Kim, alongside Democrats Stephen Lynch, Gabe Amo, Jared Moskowitz and Brad Sherman. Rep. Sherman, who sits on the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa, told The Hill the statute is “pretty clear that as long as Turkey holds on to its S-400s … it is illegal to sell” the planes.

Israel is also openly lobbying against a sale. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Monday that giving Turkey F-35s would “upset the power balance in the Middle East, which is ultimately guaranteed by Israeli air superiority,” and in a separate CNN interview called Turkey “not exactly a model ally.” The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board warned the sale would give Russia and China a “window” into US technology, writing that “allowing the two systems to work together would amount to letting Vladimir Putin conduct target practice on the free world’s pilots.”

Not all Republicans are opposed. Senator Lindsey Graham, a strong Israel supporter, told Türkiye Today there could be “some pushback in Congress, but a solution might be found.”

Why it matters

The F-35 is the centerpiece of US air-power strategy and a tightly controlled export. Reversing Turkey’s exclusion would be the most significant US arms-transfer reversal of Trump’s second term, and it would directly cut against three things Congress has used as conditions for arms sales: adherence to CAATSA, protection of Israel’s qualitative military edge, and the integrity of the F-35’s stealth secrets.

For Turkey, regaining access would restore its place in the world’s most advanced fighter program and validate Erdogan’s five-year bet that he could outwait the ban. For Israel, even the perception of a Turkey armed with F-35s changes the regional air calculus, particularly given Israel’s stated concern about Turkish rhetoric on Gaza. For Russia, a US decision to take the S-400 question off the table without Turkish disposal of the system could weaken the credibility of US sanctions regimes for years.

How the reporting differs

Sources broadly agree on Trump’s public remarks and on the existence of a legal ban, but they diverge on how to characterize the decision. The Washington Post, citing an anonymous senior administration official, reported Trump was “expected to confirm” he would greenlight purchases. Reuters, cited by the Times of Israel, said Trump “is expected to throw his support behind the sale.” Trump himself, however, used conditional language — “we will consider” — and did not announce a formal transfer.

There is also divergence on what Trump actually committed to lift. Al Jazeera and CNN both reported Trump said he would lift sanctions. The Washington Post’s account focused more heavily on Trump’s praise for Erdogan and his renewed comments about Greenland. Erdogan’s claim that Trump promised five planes is not independently confirmed in the reporting; Trump’s own public words stopped short of that number.

Unconfirmed elements include whether the Pentagon has notified Congress of any plan, what a “lift” of CAATSA sanctions would legally require, and whether Turkey will move its S-400s. Reuters, cited by the Times of Israel, said one option is sending the S-400 to a third country, but noted that any deal would need Russian consent, which is complicated by Moscow’s typical end-user requirements.

What to watch next

The next concrete milestones are procedural, not rhetorical. The administration must decide whether to formally notify Congress of an F-35 transfer, which would trigger a review period. It must also clarify how it intends to square any sanctions lift with the S-400 certification requirement in the 2020 NDAA. On the Turkish side, watch for any announcement on relocating the S-400 batteries; on the Israeli side, for whether Netanyahu escalates lobbying in Congress. Inside the administration, Hegseth’s review — the one Vance referenced — is the channel through which any decision would have to clear. Until that review produces a written certification, the gap between Trump’s “we will consider” and a binding sale remains wide.