Carney backs West Coast pipeline to ease Alberta separatist pressure

Federal and Alberta governments unite behind a West Coast pipeline

Prime Minister Mark Carney has thrown his government’s weight behind a proposed oil pipeline that would carry more than one million barrels per day from Alberta across British Columbia to Canada’s Pacific coast. Standing alongside Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in Calgary, Carney said the project is in the national interest and would help connect Alberta oil to global markets beyond the United States.

“It’s time to move to action,” Carney said at the news conference, according to Al Jazeera. “The best route for a new pipeline is one that goes through one that already exists, south through the Trans Mountain corridor, to our Pacific Coast, the gateway to the world’s fastest-growing markets.” Smith framed the project in international terms: “The world is asking Canada to step up and provide stable, democratic and reliable energy supply that countries around the world are looking for,” she said.

The route, the scale and the cost

The pipeline would run roughly 1,200 to 1,250 kilometres from Bruderheim, northeast of Edmonton, to the Roberts Bank Terminal in Delta, B.C., closely following the existing Trans Mountain corridor, according to Alberta’s submission to the federal Major Projects Office. CBC News, which obtained the submission, reported the estimated cost at 35.2 billion to 43.7 billion Canadian dollars, including contingencies, with completion expected between 2032 and 2034.

Two routing options were proposed: an “original corridor” in which roughly 92 percent of the route lies within 100 metres of existing infrastructure or previously disturbed land, and an “optimized corridor” at about 82 percent. Alberta said the southern route was chosen in part to limit “new land disturbance and impacts on the environment, wildlife and nearby communities.” Early work, including route finalization, Indigenous engagement, permitting and site preparation, is planned to begin as soon as October 2027.

The project is being advanced by the Alberta government in partnership with the federally owned Trans Mountain Corporation and Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corporation. Pembina said it will hold a 10 percent economic interest once construction begins, with an option to increase its stake by another 10 percent once the pipeline is operational. The company said it retains full discretion over any final investment decision and will not risk its own capital before then.

A pipeline explicitly aimed at Alberta separatists

The announcement is the clearest signal yet that Ottawa is treating energy policy as a tool of national unity. Politico reported that both Carney and Smith have faced political pressure to keep the country united amid a separatist movement in Alberta, where voters will decide in October whether to hold a referendum on separation from Canada. Smith has blamed “10 years of bad Liberal policy” under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for fuelling western alienation, citing climate rules and energy regulations she said hurt Alberta’s economy.

In a 17-minute YouTube video posted earlier in the week, Carney acknowledged that his government’s energy policies will increase emissions, Politico reported. He argued that climate policies championed by Trudeau had become a political wedge and fodder for Alberta separatists. “Three weeks ago, G7 Leaders called on Canada to provide the reliable energy the world needs to realise our potential as an energy superpower,” he said.

B.C. secures a concession: the northern tanker ban stays

Hours before the Calgary announcement, Ottawa and British Columbia signed a multibillion-dollar memorandum of understanding that included a federal commitment to keep the North Coast oil tanker ban in place. The moratorium has long prohibited oil tanker traffic off northern B.C. waters to protect environmentally sensitive coastlines, including the Great Bear Rainforest. Carney said the tanker ban “will remain in place. We will be protecting the northern coast of British Columbia,” according to Al Jazeera.

B.C. Premier David Eby confirmed the commitment at his own appearance in Vancouver. “It ensures that the northern tanker ban remains in place,” he said. Carney also said Ottawa will compensate B.C. for environmental risks if a pipeline is built in the southern part of the province. Politico and Al Jazeera noted that a previous memorandum between Ottawa and Alberta had included an adjustment of the tanker ban, a detail that appears to have been dropped in the latest deal.

Why a southern route — and what’s still contested

For years, Alberta had signalled openness to a northern pipeline across B.C., which would have offered a shorter path to tidewater. Trudeau ultimately rejected the Enbridge Northern Gateway project in 2016 amid opposition from environmentalists and Indigenous communities, while approving the Trans Mountain expansion. That expansion, which opened through southern B.C. in 2024, has since shipped roughly two-thirds to three-quarters of its crude to Asia, according to Al Jazeera, helping Canada reduce dependence on the U.S. market.

The new proposal deliberately avoids the contested north. CBC News reported that Smith cited “established relationships with Indigenous communities” along the Trans Mountain corridor as a key advantage. Alberta’s submission anticipates the project would pass through the traditional territories of approximately 90 to 125 Indigenous communities and cross about nine to 11 First Nations reserves in B.C. Some First Nations along potential routes remain opposed to a pipeline through the province, Al Jazeera reported.

Trade war economics and the push toward Asia

The pipeline is being framed as a response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war. Carney has set a goal of doubling Canada’s non-U.S. exports over the next decade, and has argued that a new pipeline can narrow the price discount Canadian heavy crude currently fetches on U.S. markets. Alberta’s submission estimates the project could narrow the gap between Canadian heavy crude and benchmark U.S. oil by about three U.S. dollars a barrel, according to CBC News. Most of the oil transported is expected to go to Asian markets, with potential destinations including China, India, South Korea and Japan.

Al Jazeera reported that Trump, since returning to office for a second term, has imposed varying tariffs via executive order on energy products and goods from Canada and other countries. Smith has said she wants Alberta to double oil production to eight million barrels per day over the next 10 to 15 years. As of the announcement, no oil producers had committed to using the pipeline, though Smith said discussions were continuing with the Oil Sands Alliance, a group of five major companies. Smith also told reporters that detailed funding arrangements and any costs to taxpayers “remain to be negotiated,” CBC News reported.

Jobs, timing and what to watch

Alberta’s submission touts the creation of as many as 140,000 jobs at peak construction in the early 2030s, and about 50,000 jobs during ongoing operations, according to CBC News. Carney has promised to fast-track the project through the federal permit process. Smith previously said she wanted construction to start by next year, though the current submission targets early work in October 2027 and completion between 2032 and 2034.

Key decisions to watch include the Alberta government’s October 2026 referendum vote on whether to hold a separation referendum, Pembina’s final investment decision on its stake, formal federal designation under the Major Projects Office, and any long-term shipping commitments from producers. British Columbia’s continued cooperation, and the position of First Nations along the corridor, will also shape whether the project moves from announcement to construction.